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2015 USTA National Championships Predictions

The Tennis Recruiting Network's forecasting models calculate the chance of each player reaching each round, taking into account the power rating of each player prior to the tournament's start date. Select the event you want to view below, and click on the column headers to change the table's sort order. The draws and results for this tournament can be found at the USTA TennisLink website: B18-16, G18-16, B14, G14, B12, & G12.

Predictions After:

Finals

UPSETS	Previous Round	Totals Through Prev. Round	Current Round
Upsets by Rating	Higher Rated Player loses to Lower Rated Player
Total Matches	1	191	–
Predicted Upsets	0	38	–
Actual Upsets	0	44	–
Difference	0	-6	–
Seeded Upsets	Higher Seed loses to Lower Seed or Unseeded Player
Total Matches	1	86	–
Predicted Upsets	0	17	–
Actual Upsets	0	14	–
Difference	0	+3	–

Draw Line	Seed	Player Name	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round	5th Round	Quarter Finals	Semi Finals	Finals	WIN
1	1	F. Tiafoe	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔
192	3	S. Kozlov	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔¹	–
256	2	T. Fritz	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔²	–	–
65	4	T. Paul	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	–	–
224	5	M. Mmoh	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	–	–	–
33	6	R. Opelka	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	–	–	–
144	12	E. Nava	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	–	–	–
97	7	A. Rybakov	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔²	–	–	–
240	13	D. Uspensky	✔	✔	✔	✔	–	–	–	–
116		L. Smith	✔	✔¹	✔	✔	–	–	–	–
17	10	N. Ponwith	✔	✔	✔	✔	–	–	–	–
174		M. Genender	✔	✔¹	✔	✔¹	–	–	–	–
57	30	N. Perrone	✔	✔	✔	✔¹	–	–	–	–
81	11	O. Crawford	✔	✔	✔	✔	–	–	–	–
200	20	J. McNally	✔	✔	✔	✔	–	–	–	–
152	22	B. Holt	✔	✔²	✔	✔²	–	–	–	–
157		H. Wiersholm	✔²	✔³	✔	–	–	–	–	–
25	24	M. Joyce	✔	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–
168	28	V. Kirkov	✔	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–
73	19	G. Ross	✔	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–
232	25	L. Caruana	✔	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–
248	29	S. Kumar	✔	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–
43		V. Lin	✔	✔¹	✔	–	–	–	–	–
216	23	E. Reinberg	✔	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–
206		R. Stalder	✔	✔³	✔	–	–	–	–	–
49	14	W. Genesen	✔	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–
124		R. Dickerson	✔	✔³	✔	–	–	–	–	–
13		A. Lebedev	✔	✔	✔³	–	–	–	–	–
92		G. Broadus	✔	✔³	✔	–	–	–	–	–
132		B. Vandixhorn	✔	✔	✔³	–	–	–	–	–
107		J. Turchetta	✔	✔³	✔	–	–	–	–	–
180		V. Rettke	✔	✔	✔³	–	–	–	–	–
136	17	N. Stachowiak	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
228		J. DeVine	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
9	18	S. Furman	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
103		A. Phillips	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
184	31	J. Brumm	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
45		A. Ayeni	✔	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–
210		J. Benjamin	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
80		T. Wang	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
162		M. Lin	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
218		N. Borchenko	✔	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–
154		T. Schick	✔	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–
69		P. Litsky	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
252		A. Hirsch	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
125		T. Gentry	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
88		D. Horneffer	✔	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–
185		C. Tan	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
5		L. Cuba	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
244		K. Funk	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
21		N. Brown	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
95		J. Seidman	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
204		A. Cauneac	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
37		R. Ciamarra	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
61		M. Chen	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
140		B. Lam	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
31		N. Griffin	✔	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
236		J. Fung	✔	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–
146		A. Batta	✔	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–
56		S. Burnette	✔²	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–
120		J. Dollahite	✔	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–
172		R. Smithline	✔	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–
109		T. Raclin	✔	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–
194		R. Serituk	✔	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–
160	8	W. Blumberg	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
208	9	S. Riffice	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
113	16	Z. Clark	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
105	26	K. Boyd	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
176	15	E. Rutledge	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
134		M. Mbithi	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
150		C. Mateas	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
89	21	K. Hance	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
84		J. Wasserman	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
47		K. Seelig	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
237		R. Smith	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
100		A. Pierce	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
3		B. Rowe	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
220		J. Small	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
121	32	M. Gamble	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
27		S. Richey	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
156		B. Hoffmann	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
165		R. Shen	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
197		C. Wood	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
148		P. Holden	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
189		G. Hamilton	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
85		B. Volk	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
222		S. Turchetta	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
67		L. Leschly	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
15		A. Keyser	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
128		M. Galush	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
182		B. Lieb	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
76		A. Huryn	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
212		G. Lee	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
253		A. Ross	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
20		K. Lam	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
7		N. Beaty	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
230		S. Arcila	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
164		A. Sharma	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
36		P. Barretto	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
41	27	A. Heller	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
234		D. Goulak	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
71		Z. Jennings	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
170		Y. Parikh	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
141		A. Diaz	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
39		L. Rollhauser	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
77		Z. Brodney	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
24		J. Levitin	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
249		K. Lam	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
213		Z. Bessette	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
101		M. Xue	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
117		C. Adams	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
178		W. Demulling	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
63		A. Jakubowski	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
112		A. Raghavan	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
12		C. Ross	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
225		J. Hing	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
242		E. Nittolo	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
29		M. Palmer	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
202		R. Smith	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
138		J. Conlin	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
188		T. Tuff	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
51		J. Kerst	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
246		M. Jacobs	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
59		J. Wareti	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
196		M. Lee	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
130		R. McDermott	✔²	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
93		C. Alenik	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
53		K. Ellen	✔	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
158		A. Knight	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
40		A. Chamdani	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
55		O. Sec	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
229		A. Ambrozy	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
254		B. Boyden	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
19		C. Colton	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
4		S. Karl	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
198		J. Ortlip	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
52		J. Sheehy	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
181		E. Grabill	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
16		J. Jorgeson	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
238		C. Markes	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
75		R. Marker	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
129		P. Ahmadi	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
149		B. Pelletier	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
91		D. Roberts	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
142		M. Lorenzini	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
201		J. Deautriell	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
35		F. Zaretsky	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
233		C. Ephron	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
96		J. Kros	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
104		P. Wynn	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
64		J. Rotheram	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
111		J. Thomas	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
99		Z. Lieb	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
79		C. Somers	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
245		E. Wagner	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
68		J. Haig	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
123		G. Anderson	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
217		P. Spencer	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
60		N. Parodi	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
11		W. Shkrob	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
137		D. Esses	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
83		K. Khan	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
214		R. Vishnubhotla	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
87		C. Sullivan	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
221		G. Owens	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
209		J. Walker	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
133		N. Niemiec	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
28		J. McAllister	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
241		O. Burney	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
190		D. Barretto	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
127		B. Born	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
145		W. Sharton	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
186		C. Dean	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
177		C. Auteri	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
166		N. Sutter	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
32		A. Bouchet	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
169		V. Anzalone	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
44		L. Harrison	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
72		M. Yun	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
115		M. Rebol	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
108		T. Leto	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
48		A. Steryous	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
250		R.J. Parker	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
226		D. Langston	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
153		E. Biscoveanu	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
173		G. Wischer	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
23		B. Biswas	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
193		C. Stoner	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
8		J. Ortiz-Garcia	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
161		J. Armstrong	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
205		A. Exsted	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
119		A. Grossman	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
215		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
211		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
2		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
255		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
14		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
227		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
243		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
239		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
235		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
10		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
231		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
219		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
22		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
251		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
6		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
223		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
18		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
247		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
131		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
66		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
70		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
122		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
126		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
135		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
147		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
58		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
62		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
139		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
143		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
74		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
86		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
102		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
98		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
94		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
90		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
82		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
114		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
118		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
110		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
106		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
78		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
191		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
34		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
187		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
183		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
38		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
195		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
26		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
207		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
203		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
30		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
199		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
179		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
159		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
50		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
155		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
151		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
54		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
163		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
42		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
175		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
171		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
167		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
46		Bye	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

✔ denotes an expected win
✔¹ denotes an expected win over a higher seeded player
✔² denotes an unexpected win over a higher rated player
✔³ denotes an unexpected win over a higher rated and higher seeded player

The idea for this analysis was inspired by Nate Silver's March Madness Predictions at FiveThirtyEight.com.

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